FORECAST FOR BRANCH ONION PRODUCTION FROM A VAR MODEL
Main Article Content
Abstract
This work aims to develop a VAR forecasting model for branch onion production with data from the municipality of Aquitania-Boyacá, using multivariate time series methods. The methodology has included the materialization of study phases according to the Box Jenkins method and the application of a series of Phillips and Perron statistical stationarity tests, augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root (ADF), Jarque-Bera normality tests, Phillips Ouliaris test, Granger causality test, among others. The results allow establishing a forecast model under normality, which can support the decision making of technical institutions in the sector. Finally, the conclusions allow establishing the need for this type of models that result in research for the improvement of the agricultural sector in the face of the production and harvested area.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
References
Agronet. (n.d.). Home Statistics. Retrieved March 31, 2024, from https://www.agronet.gov.co/estadistica/Paginas/home.aspx?cod=59
Aquitaine Municipal Mayor's Office. (2020). Aquitaine Development Plan 2020-2023 "Together we build progress."
Bain, C. (2013). Guide to commodities: Producers, players and prices, markets, consumers, and trends (The Economist). Great Britain: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Baker, H. K., Filbeck, G., & Harris, J. H. (2018). Commodities : markets, performance, and strategies.
Cuevas Ahumada, V. M. (2008). Inflation, Output and Economic Policy in Mexico. Economic Research, 67(265), 85–120.
Eichler, M. (2012). Graphical modelling of multivariate time series. Probability Theory and Related Fields, 153(1–2), 233–268. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00440-011-0345-8/METRICS
Fonseca-Cifuentes, G., León-Castro, E., & Blanco-Mesa, F. (2021). Predicting the future price of a commodity using the OWMA operator: An approximation of the interest rate and inflation in the brown pastusa potato price. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 40, 1971–1981. https://doi.org/10.3233/jifs-189200
Fonseca-Cifuentes, G. P., & Esquivel-Medrano, S. J. (2018). Standardized price of futures contracts in Colombia: an approximation of panela. In Studies in Finance and Management in Colombian Companies (pp. 39–59). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329539201_Precio_estandarizado_de_contratos_futuros_en_Colombia_una_aproximacion_sobre_la_panela
Geman, H. (2005). Commodities and commodity derivatives : modeling and pricing for agriculturals, metals, and energy. John Wiley & Sons.
Gilbert, C. L., & Morgan, C. W. (2011). Food price volatility. In I. Piot-Lepetit & R. M'Barek (Eds.), Methods to analyse agricultural commodity price volatility (pp. 107–132). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7634-5_7
Horngren, C. T., Datar, S. M., & Rajan, M. V. (2012). Cost accounting. A managerial approach.
International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED). (200). Agricultural commodities, trade and sustainable development (T. Lines, Ed.). London: Earthprint.
Meneses-Cerón, L. Á., & Pérez-Pacheco, C. A. (2020). Comparative analysis of efficiency in emerging markets. The case of Colombia, Chile and Peru. Apuntes Contables, (26), 9–24. https://doi.org/10.18601/16577175.N26.02
Metcalfe, A. V., & Cowpertwait, P. S. P. (2009). Introductory Time Series with R. Introductory Time Series with R. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-88698-5
Montero, R. (2013). Non-stationary variables and cointegration. Working Papers in Applied Economics. Spain.
Morán Chiquito, D. M. (2014). Determinants of inflation in Ecuador. An econometric analysis using VAR models. Economy and Society, XVIII(31), 53–70.
United Nations. (2018). The 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals: An Opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/G.2681-P/Rev.3). www.cepal.org/es/suscripciones
Nguyen, D. B. B., & Prokopczuk, M. (2018a). Jumps in commodity markets. Journal of Commodity Markets. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2018.10.002
Nguyen, D. B. B., & Prokopczuk, M. (2018b). Jumps in commodity markets. Journal of Commodity Markets. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2018.10.002
Novales, A. (2017). Autoregressive vector models (VAR).
Perfetti, J. J., Balcázar, Á., Hernández, A., & Leibovich, J. (2013). Policies for the development of agriculture in Colombia.
Pfaff, B. (2008). VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation Within R Package vars. Journal of Statistical Software, 27(4), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.18637/JSS.V027.I04
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/BIOMET/75.2.335
Phillips, P., & Ouliaris, S. (1990). Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration. Econometrica, 58(1), 165–193. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:58:y:1990:i:1:p:165-93
Pindyck, R. S. (2004). Volatility and commodity price dynamics. Journal of Futures Markets, 24(11), 1029–1047. https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.20120
Piot-Lepetit, I., & M'Barek, R. (2011). Methods to analyse agricultural commodity price volatility. Springer.
Pollock, D. S. G. (1999). A handbook of time-series analysis, signal processing and dynamics. http://www.sciencedirect.com:5070/book/9780125609906/handbook-of-time-series-analysis-signal-processing-and-dynamics
Presidency of the Republic. (2015). National Development Plan 2014 - 2018 All for a New Country. Action https://www.minagricultura.gov.co/planeacion-control-gestion/Gestin/Plan/NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2014 - 2018 ALL FOR A NEW PAIS.pdf
Radetzki, M. (2008). A handbook of primary commodities in the global economy. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316416945
Razzaque, M. A., Osafa-Kwaako, P., & Grynberg, R. (2007). The problems of commodity dependence. In R. Grynberg & S. Newton (Eds.), Commodity prices and development (pp. 7–16). New York: Oxford University Press.
Reimers, H. E. (1992). Comparisons of tests for multivariate cointegration. Statistical Papers, 33(1), 335–359. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02925336/METRICS
Schnepf, R. (2006). CRS Report for Congress: Price determination in agricultural commodity markets: A primer. http://www.nationalaglawcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/assets/crs/RL33204.pdf
Unidas, N. (2021). Innovation for Development: The Key to a Transformative Recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean. https://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/47544
Uribe, J. F., Fajardo, E. O., & Romero, H. L. (2017). Impact of public employment policies on unemployment in Colombia: an intervention analysis for the period 2002-2014. Revista Espacios, 38(36), 22. https://www.revistaespacios.com/a17v38n36/a17v38n36p22.pdf